ب [جوش] [غرتنر]

لسنون قد تساءل إقتصاديات ما إذا ال يتحتّم يرتفع قوة الصين كان مماثلة إلى اليابان في الثمانينات. إن أنت تتذكّر (ويتطلّب أنّ أنت أن يكون على 22), الناس استعملوا أن يفكّر أنّ اليابان كان الحيوان [أونستوبّبل] معدّ ل أن يستلم العالم. جعل أفلام وأوساط شعبيّة غالبا مرجع إلى هذا, من في طرق [نوو-كميكل].

بين بعض من المثل بارزة أكثر من هذا نوبة كان [غنغ] [هو] (رون هوارد فيلم), المشهد داخل [بك تو] المقبلة [إيي] عندما [مرتي] قديمة يتحدّث إلى رؤساءه يابانيّة, وال [هيلريووسلي] [أوت-وف-دت] يرتفع شمس, أيّ كان مايكل [كريشتون] كتاب, يلتفت داخل فيلم [أنلي فتر] اليابان عمليّة سقوط تلقّى سابقا أصبح واضحة. كان النظرية شعبيّة أنّ الناس يابانيّة كان أكثر كرّست إلى عملهم, ويريد أن يضع في [لونغ هوور] من الناس في الالغرب. عنى هذا ثغر في عمل أخلاقيّات أنّ اليابان كان قوة [أونستوبّبل] في الاقتصاد شاملة, وأنّ نحن كلّ قريبا كنت عملنا ك [منّيس] في طوكيو. بما أنّ هو [تثرن ووت], كان اليابان يمكن أن يبقي مكانه كقوّة عظمى اقتصاديّا, غير أنّ هو بصعوبة [هجمونيك] الطريق أنّ الناس توقّعوا. [ب] الناس في الالغرب لم الى حدّ بعيد مثل كسولة بما أنّ نحن فكرة (هتاف خارجا إلى الالفرنسيّون 35 ساعة عمل أسبوع. طريق أن يستمرّ أن يروّج النظرية!) لا يمتلك اليابان ال [أوس] أو أوروبا. على العكس, يحفربنفسي هم بعد من فترة ركود [دكد-لونغ] أنّ واقعيّا رأى انكماش, شيء نادرا يرى منذ الالأزمة الاقتصاديّة الكبرى.

Experts will generally tell you that China is a completely different situation. The common argument is that the sheer population size of the country makes it an inevitable economic power. However, it seems like this point, in isolation, falls flat, otherwise China surely would have become an economic titan years ago.

The second point is that the driving force is not only population. Rather the (relatively) newly open economy has helped shed the chains of communism that previously held the country back. In combination, these two factors are propelling China ahead of the pack.

Yet for all of the rhetoric that China is the heir apparent to economic hegemony, there has been no shortage of reporting on the problems with its current policies. Most notably poor safety regulation, IP piracy (which hinders innovation), and the developing environmental disaster, all serve to set back the recent economic push. These factors should be tamping down on what some might label irrational exuberance.

Perhaps even more compelling is lack of underlying logic to why China will dominate the global economy (whereas there was a case with Japan, even thought the theory proved flawed). While there are Chinese entrepreneurs who have shown a knack for innovation and even brilliance, the greater work force shows more remnants of communistic tendencies than signs of a dynamic work ethic.

China backers will make the case that Japan’s unprecedented rise was based largely on an illusion, namely the absurdly inflated property prices that created vast amounts of paper money and spurred poor investment decisions. When this bubble burst it brought reality to the markets, and made Japan’s place as a strong, but not dominant economic player, all the more apparent.

It should be pointed out that China also shows signs of major flaws in its economy. Many have argued that there is a property bubble, although not on the scale of Japan in the 1980s. It has rampant corruption, fueling both the property problem as well as the massive amounts of NPLs (non-performing loans) that continue to raise red flags in the banking industry. And finally China’s economic system is not developed enough to reign in economic growth to curb inflation. Interest rates are essentially irrelevant when loans are not made on economic criteria.

None of this is to say that China will not become a major player in the world economy. Clearly it already has and there is no reason to believe that even a precipitous collapse, something that seems unlikely, would be so devastating the country could not recover. South Korea, for example, is in a strong position only ten years after an unmitigated disaster.

The question is not about whether China will be a power, it is about if the country will become an economic hegemon.

Josh Gartner, China Expat