Par Shaun Rein
Ce commentaire est basé sur un article édité dedans Semaine d'affaires

Tandis que les États-Unis on s'attend à ce que l'investissement de portefeuille privé demeure plat en 2008, Chine devrait enregistrer la croissance positive de 30% pendant les trois années à venir. Avec le craquement de crédit courant troublant les marchés financiers, les capitaux propres privés affermissent aux États-Unis et l'Europe ont du mal à utiliser le crédit qu'ils doivent placer leurs acquisitions. Selon Dealogic, la valeur des rachats a laissé tomber presque 90% aux États-Unis, de $216 milliards dans le deuxième trimestre de 2007 à seulement $22.1 milliards dans le dernier trimestre. En revanche, les capitaux propres privés en Chine continuent à gronder. La Chine a reçu $12.8 milliards dans l'investissement de portefeuille privé en 2007. En 2005, les investisseurs ont assigné seulement $5 milliards au pays. Le capital sous la gestion a frappé l'année dernière $20.5 milliards, une augmentation de 40% plus de 2006, selon la société Zero2IPO de recherches de Pékin.

Ma société, le groupe de recherche de marché de la Chine, des entrevues conduites avec des directeurs aux plusieurs des capitaux propres privés douzaine principaux affermit aux États-Unis et la Chine pour voir si la Chine est susceptible de rester un marché chaud pour des capitaux propres privés, ou si le resserrement du crédit frappera la région, aussi. Nos résultats ont montré l'optimisme pour l'investissement dans Chine. La grande majorité de répondants a estimé que les États-Unis private equity investing will remain flat or drop in 2008 while China will post 30%-plus annual growth for the next three years.

In recent years, China has been a tough market for private equity, with too much money chasing too few deals, a booming local share market causing sky-high valuations, and regulatory hurdles hindering investment in certain sectors. Moreover, investors are also worried about the lack of financial transparency at many Chinese companies. While some of those obstacles remain serious, successful exits recently by Softbank and GGV from Alibaba, and Morgan Stanley (MS) and Crescent Point from footwear manufacturer Belle International show returns can be had for the savvy investor.

Growing Middle Class Fuels Growth

The surge in private equity funds in China is supported by four pillars: the continued optimism and growth of China’s middle class in spite of inflation and the global downturn, the increasing global competitiveness of domestic Chinese firms that need expertise and capital to expand internationally, the tightening of credit from Chinese banks, and the decline of China’s stock market.

Investments in companies that target China’s emerging 250-million-strong middle class will continue to pay dividends as the group remains optimistic. As I wrote recently (BusinessWeek.com, 4/2/08), the vast majority of Chinese middle-class youth expect to spend considerably more money in 2008 than 2007. The continued optimism of households earning between $6,000 and $15,000 drives compelling investment into companies that target them.

A case in point is the fast-food market, growing at 20% annually, as increasingly busy Chinese families lack the time to prepare their own food or prefer to socialize with friends in restaurants than cook. China Capital Today, a private equity firm based in Shanghai that has foreign limited partners and closed a new $600 million fund last month, in October led a group to back Kungfu Catering. A fast-food chain that operates 261 restaurants with a $40 million investment, Kungfu’s goal is to carve out a slice of what will be a $50 billion fast-food industry in China in the next five years. Kungfu has carefully fostered a clear brand message, something that just five years ago most Chinese companies were unable to do.

As one 25-year-old Shanghai woman told us, “I like eating at Kungfu because I know I’m going to get healthy, steamed food quickly every time.”

Emerging Stronger from the Tainted Food Scare

Chinese companies that need capital and international expertise to take their companies global also make attractive investments for private equity firms. One example is China Minzhong, a producer of processed vegetables. To help in its global expansion, China Minzhong took funding from Olympus Capital Holdings Asia and a consortium of other investors. New York-based Olympus, which has allocated $1.2 billion in middle-market private equity investments in Asia since 1997, saw that Minzhong had lower costs than competitors in the developed world yet had implemented quality-control standards to ensure the safety demanded by Western consumers.

Bulwarked by additional capital and expertise, Minzhong has more than doubled profits in the past two years and now exports to 22 countries. Following China’s tainted food scare last year, Minzhong has emerged stronger. It has consolidated market share as smaller, less well-capitalized players cannot compete in ensuring food safety.

During the Chinese stock market’s bull run in 2006 and 2007, many companies demanded higher valuations. If they did not get them from private equity firms, companies decided to raise money in the public markets instead, where initial-public-offering prices regularly doubled on the first day of trading. The drop of China’s market—down more than 50% since November—has changed the situation. Many entrepreneurs who could previously demand huge valuations for their companies in the public markets now are turning to private equity investors for reasonable valuations.

Changes in China’s banking system also bode well for private equity. Although relatively unscathed by the subprime debacle, Chinese banks can no longer loan as much money because the government has moved to combat rising inflation by increasing the bank reserve ratio to 17.5% from 16% earlier this year. What money banks do lend tends to go to state-run enterprises first or to large private companies, leaving even very profitable private smaller companies unable to get funding from traditional sources. They are turning more to private equity to get the capital they need to grow.

The sinking stock market and the ongoing credit squeeze create a great opportunity for private equity firms to provide capital and get more reasonable valuations from fast-growing companies than has been possible in the last few years.

Shaun Rein is the founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group (CMR), a market intelligence firm that helps companies make smarter decisions in China.