デイヴィッドHunter著

ずっと過去の10年の中国の成長は前例のない。 中国は今でも地球の外国の製造業の投資のための最も普及した行先である。 2007年にそれは外国の直接投資(FDI)の以上$80,000,000,000を引き付けた。 中国の経済は「余分熱に続く」。 2002-06年に平均年次国内総生産の成長は一人につき国内総生産の成長は人口増加のために9.2%そうなったものだったが、10.3%だった。

この「癌性」成長は質の点では非常に高い費用と、効率、銀行業または機密管理および地政学的な原子灰来る。 経済を冷却するためには、中国の政府は過去の18か月にわたるある応急処置を実行した。 既に中国のビジネスをしている米国会社に影響を与える主手段のいくつかは賃金、為替相場および税である。

賃金

中華人民共和国で低い賃金のいくつかを労働率463元から過去5年にわたって増加してもらう広東省では577元、2002年2004年2006年からの676元、それぞれ。 平均賃金は25% 2002年に2004年および17%から2004年に46%の余分この期限である2006年をから増加した。 これは医学、食事、宿泊設備、等のような重荷を、含んでいない。

The total wages for employees in China reached 2.34 trillion Yuan in 2006 from 1.32 trillion Yuan (US$309 million) in 2002 (minus inflation), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The average annual wage of an employee reached 21,001 Yuan in 2006, up 70% by real terms from 12,422 Yuan in 2002, after deducting price hikes. In other words, the largest resource in this country has increased its cost to 25% per year in almost every industry.

Exchange Rate

The China RMB or Yuan was historically pegged to the US dollar at a rate of 8.2865. In 2005, the currency was allowed to free float and as of May 31, 2008 the exchange rate to the dollar was 6.9348 or a 19.5% increase in value since the adjustment in foreign exchange policies. This translates to a 1% decrease in profits of a local Chinese company for every 3% devaluation of the dollar.

Taxes

According to official statistics, as of the end of 2005, there were about 500,000 companies with foreign investment registered in China. Of those, about 330,000 had started operating. About 55% of the foreign companies operating reported losses between 2001 and 2004. In 2005, the figure dropped to 42.96%. It is interesting that while Chinese enterprises, including state-owned, joint-stock and private companies, have been making profits in recent years, nearly half of all foreign-invested businesses have been losing money. Yet while so many foreign enterprises claim to be losing money, China witnesses a continual rise in its FDI. According to a research report by the National Bureau of Statistics on foreign companies claiming to be making losses in China, two-thirds of them have “extraordinary losses.” Chinese officials believe many of these foreign companies are in fact using transfer pricing and other ways to reduce taxable income. In reaction, China is phasing out its practice of charging lower corporate tax rates for foreign-owned companies.

Another key impact on the tax is Value Added Tax (VAT) which is paid when goods are used or made in country. This VAT is then refunded if the goods are exported. However, this is not a 100% refund. In fact, there have been three rounds of VAT rebate reduction since 2005. China’s rates of VAT rebate for exports comprise five levels, i.e., 5%, 9%, 11%, 13% and 17%. On 1 July 2007, China adjusted the VAT rebate rates for certain exports. The most recent China reduction of the export VAT rebate in July 2007 has further impacted profitability of most companies. An example of this would be a company that has two plants in China: Assuming Plant A has >90% local content and Plant B has >35% local content, a reduction in VAT rebate by as little as 2% means Plant A’s profit margin will been reduced by over 3% and Plant B’s by over 1%. This is based on the value added portion of work “in-country.”

Risk Mitigation

These are some of the key economic effects that are a natural progression for a developing nation. However, as the policies change the consequences have a rippling effect on many companies. In order to maximize on the cost advantages and mitigate the risks of a one-country strategy, as the PRC continues to make policy changes, we offer the following alternatives.

• Cost Optimization
One of the major advantages of China’s development and influx of FDI is the maturity and depth of supply chain infrastructure that has been established. Many Western organizations are perhaps not “localized enough” to be able to optimize these supply chains. In difficult times, relationships become a critical factor to ensure one takes advantage of supply chain processes. Collaboration rather than individual activities brings greater purchasing leverage by optimizing the supply chain relative to costs, lead times, and freight. Local knowledge is to know how to classify your products. Perhaps changing from fully built to “semi-finished goods”, with finishing taking place closer to the end customers will allow the company to optimize on the VAT rebates.

• Two Countries, One Strategy
Companies that are already established in the PRC or are in the process of doing so, need to have a “multi-country” Asia strategy. This means moving or establishing a presence in other parts of Asia, i.e., Vietnam, India, while keeping the same strategy for lower costs and or proximity to markets. It is estimated that over 40,000 Hong Kong based enterprises have done just that.

• Time To Bring It Home
Maybe the strategy you set three to five years ago did not come to fruition or conditions have changed so much that it is time to bring some of the operations/activities home and minimize the investments. Although China has intoxicated investors throughout history, it is neither the only nor the right answer for everyone. North America and parts of Europe (Eastern) are still very viable business investments for manufacturing and sourcing, depending on the margin sensitivity of the business. However, this strategic change should not be taken lightly, since investments in time, capital and resources have been established. The winds of economic change will shift again and to re-establish in the PRC will be very costly.

David Hunter works for International Innovations and is Managing Director of Logic Procurement Asia LTD