由中國簡報 

克里斯Devonshire-Ellis、Dezan Shira的資深合夥人&同事，講話在亞洲企業論壇每年中國M&A會議在新加坡今天說他感到中國經濟將承受所有美國。 後退和那M&A (合併和承購)活動在the PRC將繼續。

他的評論，做對一個小組著名院，并且律師，包括Deloitte Touche和KPMG公司財務頭，聲明那，當美國時。 進口在過去四個月在美國的下降了10%發信號街市。 經濟，漢語出口上升了21%為同一個期間，證明，他說，中國在別處有將保持它免疫從所有美國的能承受的出口市場。 後退。 他也注意到在最近中國新年期間，中國零售增加了16% 2007，并且FDI增加了109%於1月對US$11十億去年。 最近企圖冷卻中國的巨型的成長慢慢地看上去運作，并且US$12十億的最近射入在票據將支持國內消費并且幫助壓低通貨膨脹由開始農村經濟的反撞力花費更多，給對物品的國內和進口需求加油。

Concerning M&A, Devonshire-Ellis commented that of China’s US$80 billion plus of deals, much of this was essentially government driven and funded, with little being from the private sector. “It’s interesting to note the two biggest M&A deals last year were by Beijing Enterprise Holdings of Hong Kong, being the listed investment arm of the Beijing government, who purchased Beijing Gas for US$1.5 billion, and China Aluminum, who bought 49 percent of Yunnan Copper for US$1 billion. These are essentially government backed deals. By comparison, much of India’s M&A activity last year involved the private sector,” he said. 

Devonshire-Ellis also mentioned that there was some cooling towards China investments at the present, but passed this off on sub-prime lending emotions in the United States rather than China-based intangibles. Noting the MSCI Zhong Hua index has dropped 30 percent since August, and that the value of portfolios such as specialist China investors such as Jupiter China Fund had also decreased by 25 percent during the same period, the facts point to China immunity via its strong export-driven economy not being affected by the slow down in U.S. imports as significant, and that the MSCI will recover ground.

He also pointed out that China was investing heavily in its own infrastructure, with USD67 billion being earmarked for Central Chinese development this year alone, and other huge investments being made in the energy, power supply, waste and water treatment / management and that this expenditure would continue to push M&A activity in China. “It’s driven essentially by a realignment of strategic businesses that are currently poorly integrated,” he said.

However, he passed a word of warning about a Chinese “glass ceiling” when mentioning that Chinese business managers were not in the same global league as those from other emerging markets, such as India. Noting that the Shanghai bourse was still largely taken up by companies all or partly owned by the government, he questioned the credibility of the regulatory system in China and advised that this led Chinese managers into poor standards of corporate governance and accountability. They were playing in China to rules set in China and were not being educated to global standards he mentioned. This, coupled with serious communication difficulties, would mean that no major expansion overseas of Chinese companies, except those strategically positioned by the government for the basic acquisition of raw materials and energy for use in China, would emerge.

China Briefing, the Practical Application of China Business