Part I: Luxury brands and the retail sector in China第一部分：奢侈品品牌及零售界在中國

By Nick Debnam & George Svinos, KPMG由尼克德布南＆喬治svinos ，畢馬威會計師事務所

Foreign Foreign companies share a growing interest in tapping into China’s luxury market. 外商外資公司的份額越來越有興趣進軍中國的奢侈品市場。 Statistics show not only that the number of wealthy people is growing fast in China, but that their willingness to spend on big-ticket items is also on the rise, driven by an appetite for status as well as the comforts and trappings of luxury products. 統計顯示，這不僅使多少有錢的人正在迅速成長，在中國，但他們願意花大件也不斷增加，驅使胃口地位以及為舒適和服飾的奢侈產品。

China’s economy grew 10.3 percent in the first quarter of 2006 from the year earlier, overtaking the United Kingdom to become the world’s fourth largest economy.中國的經濟增長了10.3個百分點，在2006年第一季度，從去年同期比較，超過了美國，英國，成為世界第四大經濟體。 According to a preliminary estimation by the National Bureau of Statistics in China, the GDP of China in the first half of 2006 was RMB 9.144 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.9 percent.據初步估計，由國家統計局的統計，在中國，中國GDP在2006年上半年是人民幣91440.00億，比上一年增長了10.9 ％ 。 Total retail sales of consumer goods for the first half of 2006 also experienced significant growth, reaching RMB 3.644 trillion, a year-on-year rise of 13.3 percent.總社會消費品零售總額為2006年的上半年也經歷了顯著增長，達人民幣36440.00億，比上一年增長13.3 ％ 。 Overall, China’s retail sales have been rising at their fastest pace as increasing incomes spur spending on cars, furniture and electronics.(4)從整體上看，中國的零售業銷貨額一直在上升，其最快速度為增加收入，帶動消費對汽車，家具和電子產品。 （ 4 ）

Retail sales have been rising alongside disposable income.零售業銷貨額一直上升並肩可支配收入。 According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, per capita disposable income of urban households stood at RMB 5,997 in 2005, an increase of 1.6 percent over the previous year, and a real increase of 10.2 percent after deducting price factors.據國家統計局的統計，中國的人均可支配收入，城鎮居民家庭為5997元人民幣， 2005年增加了1.6個百分點，比前一年多，實際增長10.2 ％ ，扣除價格因素。 The per capita consumption expenditure stood at RMB 4,228, a year-on-year increase of 9.4 percent, and a real growth of 8.0 percent.人均消費支出為4228元人民幣，比上一年增加了9.4 ％ ，實際增長8.0 ％ 。 Cities are home to some 40 percent of China’s population, and average incomes in urban areas are often more than three times those in the countryside.(5) In June 2006 retail sales of urban consumer goods was RMB 2.462 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 14.0 percent; that of rural areas was RMB 1.183 trillion, increasing12.0 percent.(6)城市是家中大約有40 ％的中國人口多，平均收入在城市地區常常是3倍以上，這些在農村。 （ 5 ）在2006年6月零售銷售城市消費品人民幣24620.00億，與去年上一年增加了14.0 ％ ，這對農村地區的人民幣11830.00億， increasing12.0 ％ 。 （ 6 ）

Demand for luxury brands 需求奢侈品牌
Asia is the largest target market for luxury brands, accounting for more sales than any other region, including Europe and the United States.亞洲是世界上最大的目標市場為奢侈品品牌，佔更多的銷售比任何其他地區，包括歐洲和美國。 For instance, half of Switzerland’s USD 8 billion annual watch exports go to Asia.舉例來說，有一半是瑞士的美元80億，每年觀賞都出口到亞洲。 France’s LVMH, the world’s largest luxury goods company, claims that 40 percent of world sales are generated in Asia while for its rival, Gucci, the figure is 45 percent.法國的路易威登，世界最大的奢侈品公司，聲稱有40 ％的世界銷售額都產生在亞洲，而它的競爭對手， Gucci後，這個數字是45 ％ 。 (7) （ 7 ）

According to one of the world’s leading financial groups, Goldman Sachs, consumption of luxury goods in China, except private jets and luxury yachts, reached USD6 billion in 2004, making up12 percent of the global total consumption on the goods— up from 1 percent just five years previously.之一，據世界領先的金融集團，高盛，消費的奢侈消費品在中國，除私人飛機和豪華遊艇，達成usd6億元，在2004年，使up12 ％的全球總消費對消費品行動從1 ％ ，短短5年以前。 According to their findings China has turned into the third largest consumer of luxury goods in the world.(8) Its share of the luxury market is only superseded by Japan with 41 percent and the US at 17 percent.根據他們的調查結果，中國已經成為世界第三大消費的奢侈商品在世界（ 8 ） ，其所佔的奢侈品市場是唯一取代日本有41 ％和美國17 ％ 。 It is expected to grow 20 percent annually until 2008 and then 10 percent annually until 2015, when sales are expected to exceed USD 1.5 bilion.(9)它預計將增長20 ％ ，每年直到2008年，然後在10 ％ ，每年直到2015年，當銷售收入預計將超過1.5美元bilion （ 9 ）

Of course, only a tiny fraction of China’s huge population can afford to spend several thousand renminbi on a bag or a pair of shoes.當然，只有一小部分中國的人口眾多，有能力花幾千人民幣對一包或雙鞋。 But many experts argue that China can become the world’s largest luxury market with a comparatively low purchasing rate because of its 1.3 billion population.但許多專家認為，中國可以成為世界上最大的豪華汽車市場，以相對較低的購買率，因為它有13億人口。 While luxury-buying wealth is still spread extremely thin, the number of rich Chinese is rising fast.而奢侈品購買財富還在蔓延極薄，有多少豐富的中文是迅速上升。 In 1999 you needed just USD 6 million to be among Forbes Magazine’s 50 richest people in China, while last year you needed USD 140 million to rank in the richest 100.(10) Accordingly in 2006 it was reported that were around 300,000 US dollar millionaires among China’s more than one billion inhabitants.(11)在1999年，你所需要的只是600萬美元，以成為福布斯雜誌的50個最富有的人在中國，而去年你所需要的美元， 1.4億美元排在最富有的100 （ 10 ）據此在2006年據報導，大約30萬美國美元百萬富翁，其中中國的10多億人口。 （ 11 ）

Market performance 市場表現
Sales of luxury goods are booming across the world as the strength of the global economy helps to forge a new class of wealthy consumers in Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.銷售高檔商品正在迅速增長，世界各地作為實力的全球經濟，有助於建立一類新的富裕消費者，在亞洲，中東和東歐。 Whether it is yachts, premium car brands, haute couture fashion, high-priced liquor or designer perfumes and hand-crafted watches, reports from companies making high-end products have been pointing to a robust 2006 for their industry after a solid start to the year.無論是遊艇，地價汽車品牌，高級女裝時裝，高價位的酒或設計師香水和手工製作的手錶，報告從公司決策高檔次產品已指著一強勁，為2006年該行業經過了堅實開始向一年。

Demand for luxury and fashion products has traditionally been regarded as fickle and highly susceptible to swings in economic sentiment.需求的奢侈品和時裝產品向來被視為變幻無常的市場需求和高度易感，以鞦韆，在經濟景氣。 However luxury brands have now enjoyed many successive years of growth.不過豪華車品牌已經享有許多連年增長。 According to Bain & Co., worldwide sales of luxury goods are expected to grow at an average of about 6 percent up to the end of the decade, with the  sector growing by as much as 9 percent in Asia.據公司Bain ＆ Co ，全球銷售的高檔商品，預計增長在平均約六％ ，至2010年底，將與業界增長高達9 ％ ，在亞洲。 (12) According to the Economic Research Institute in China, earnings from stock and property speculation have also contributed to the booming sales of luxury goods.(13) （ 12 ）按照經濟研究院，在中國，收入從股票和房地產的投機活動也促進了銷售激增的奢侈品。 （ 13 ）

The above-average growth in Asia is attributable in large part to China.上述平均增長率在亞洲是在很大程度上歸功於中國。 Goldman Sachs has predicted that China will consume about 29 percent of the world’s total luxury goods in 2015, surpassing Japan as the world’s top luxury brands market.高盛公司預言，中國將消耗約29 ％的世界總的奢侈消費品，到2015年，超過了日本，成為世界頂尖的豪華車品牌市場。 Their studies predict that the demand for luxury goods in China will grow by 25 percent annually between 2006 and 2010, exceeding Japan’s expected 28 percent share at that time.(14) A similar prediction is made by Meril Lynch, which expects that extravagant offshore spending will see Chinese consumers likely to account for almost a quarter of global luxury goods purchases by 2014.(15)他們的研究預言的需求，高檔商品在中國將增長25 ％ ，每年都在2006年和2010年，超過了日本預期的28 ％的份額，在這個時候（ 14 ）類似的預測是由meril林奇，其中預計奢侈離岸支出將看到中國消費者可能占到將近四分之一的全球奢侈消費品的購買2014年（ 15 ）

Luxury car brands also predict significant growth in the coming years.豪華車品牌，也預示著顯著的增長，在未來數年。 For example, luxury German car group Audi said in May 2006 that sales in China had almost doubled in the space of five months.舉例來說，德國的豪華汽車集團奧迪公司稱，在2006年5月在中國的銷售幾乎增加了一倍，在太空生活的5個月。 Mercedes-Benz said sales rose more than 20 percent year on year, while BMW AG began the year by posting the best total quarterly sales in the auto group’s history.(16)梅賽德斯-奔馳公司表示，銷售額增長了20 ％以上，今年一年，而寶馬汽車公司開始了一年張貼最好的季度共銷售汽車集團的歷史。 （ 16 ）

Sales of certain luxury goods have been given a further boost by the progressive reduction of tariffs on imported luxury goods since 2005 in accordance with China’s commitments to the World Trade Organization.銷售的某些高檔商品被賦予了進一步推動通過逐步降低關稅，對進口奢侈消費品， 2005年以來，按照中國的承諾，加入世界貿易組織。 For example, the 28 percent to 40 percent tariff that was levied on imported watches until the end of the year 2004 was cut to 12.5 percent and will be further reduced to1 percent by the end of 2006.舉例來說， 28 ％至40 ％的關稅，這是徵收，對進口的手錶，直到今年年底， 2004年減少到12.5 ％ ，將進一步減至1189.89 ％ ，為2006年年底。

Counterfeiting 假冒
While the Chinese luxury goods market is growing rapidly, an equally fast-growing segment of local industry has been counterfeiting.而中國奢侈品消費品市場正在迅速擴大，一個同樣快速成長的部分地方行業一直在仿冒。 Just as China has become the world’s leading assemble rand exporter of manufactured goods, it is likewise said to be dominating the underground trade in luxury fakes.正如中國已成為世界領先的組裝蘭德製成品的出口產品，這是同樣說是獨霸地下貿易奢侈品假貨。 The US and EU assert that the majority of fakes seized at their borders are made in China.美國和歐盟斷言說，大部份的假貨查獲在邊境地區，是在中國生產的。 Mainland Chinese counterfeit exports to the US accounted for 69 percent of total seizures last year, or about USD 64 million worth, according to US customs.中國大陸假冒產品出口到美國，佔69 ％ ，共緝獲去年，即約美元6,400萬元的價值，據美國海關。 The problem is perhaps most pervasive in China because counterfeit operations are secretive, resilient and geographically dispersed.(17)這個問題也許是最普遍的，在中國，因為假冒行動隱秘，富於彈性和地理上分散的（ 17 ）

While government authorities are concerned that a proportion of profits from counterfeit goods are going to organised crime, companies are busy assessing the extent to which counterfeiting is undermining their brand value.而政府當局關心的一個比例的利潤，從假冒商品要有組織犯罪，公司正忙於評估在何種程度上假冒行為是破壞了他們的品牌價值。 Ultimately, despite the opportunities created by emerging markets like China, India and Russia, luxury brands are fighting battles on multiple fronts–and some say luxury brands are fighting to hold on to their identity.最終，儘管創造的機會的新興市場，如中國，印度和俄羅斯，豪華車品牌是整體作戰多方面-有人說奢侈品品牌戰，以掌握他們的身份。 For them, the name denotes a guarantee of quality and with counterfeits the guarantee of quality offered by luxury brands is being undermined.對於他們來說，名字是指品質的保證，並與假冒產品質量保證所提供的豪華車品牌被削弱。 Others suggest that the situation is a double-edged sword.也有人認為，這個情況是一把雙刃劍。 Some believe that the availability of counterfeits has helped to make the genuine product more sought-after, as well as increasing general awareness of luxury names.(18)有的認為，提供假冒產品，有利於使真正的產品更受歡迎後，以及日益普遍的認識奢侈的名字。 （ 18 ）

Nick Debnam & George Svinos,尼克德布南＆喬治svinos ， KPMG畢馬威

This is part I of a KPMG Retail Report.這是第一部分一畢馬威零售報告。 Next week we will publish part II下週，我們將公佈第二部分

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