Part I: Luxury brands and the retail sector in China第一部分：奢侈品品牌及零售界在中国

By Nick Debnam & George Svinos, KPMG由尼克德布南＆乔治svinos ，毕马威会计师事务所

Foreign Foreign companies share a growing interest in tapping into China’s luxury market. 外商外资公司的份额越来越有兴趣进军中国的奢侈品市场。 Statistics show not only that the number of wealthy people is growing fast in China, but that their willingness to spend on big-ticket items is also on the rise, driven by an appetite for status as well as the comforts and trappings of luxury products. 统计显示，这不仅使多少有钱的人正在迅速成长，在中国，但他们愿意花大件也不断增加，驱使胃口地位以及为舒适和服饰的奢侈产品。

China’s economy grew 10.3 percent in the first quarter of 2006 from the year earlier, overtaking the United Kingdom to become the world’s fourth largest economy.中国的经济增长了10.3个百分点，在2006年第一季度，从去年同期比较，超过了美国，英国，成为世界第四大经济体。 According to a preliminary estimation by the National Bureau of Statistics in China, the GDP of China in the first half of 2006 was RMB 9.144 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.9 percent.据初步估计，由国家统计局的统计，在中国，中国GDP在2006年上半年是人民币91440.00亿，比上一年增长了10.9 ％ 。 Total retail sales of consumer goods for the first half of 2006 also experienced significant growth, reaching RMB 3.644 trillion, a year-on-year rise of 13.3 percent.总社会消费品零售总额为2006年的上半年也经历了显着增长，达人民币36440.00亿，比上一年增长13.3 ％ 。 Overall, China’s retail sales have been rising at their fastest pace as increasing incomes spur spending on cars, furniture and electronics.(4)从整体上看，中国的零售业销货额一直在上升，其最快速度为增加收入，带动消费对汽车，家具和电子产品。 （ 4 ）

Retail sales have been rising alongside disposable income.零售业销货额一直上升并肩可支配收入。 According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, per capita disposable income of urban households stood at RMB 5,997 in 2005, an increase of 1.6 percent over the previous year, and a real increase of 10.2 percent after deducting price factors.据国家统计局的统计，中国的人均可支配收入，城镇居民家庭为5997元人民币， 2005年增加了1.6个百分点，比前一年多，实际增长10.2 ％ ，扣除价格因素。 The per capita consumption expenditure stood at RMB 4,228, a year-on-year increase of 9.4 percent, and a real growth of 8.0 percent.人均消费支出为4228元人民币，比上一年增加了9.4 ％ ，实际增长8.0 ％ 。 Cities are home to some 40 percent of China’s population, and average incomes in urban areas are often more than three times those in the countryside.(5) In June 2006 retail sales of urban consumer goods was RMB 2.462 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 14.0 percent; that of rural areas was RMB 1.183 trillion, increasing12.0 percent.(6)城市是家中大约有40 ％的中国人口多，平均收入在城市地区常常是3倍以上，这些在农村。 （ 5 ）在2006年6月零售销售城市消费品人民币24620.00亿，与去年上一年增加了14.0 ％ ，这对农村地区的人民币11830.00亿， increasing12.0 ％ 。 （ 6 ）

Demand for luxury brands 需求奢侈品牌
Asia is the largest target market for luxury brands, accounting for more sales than any other region, including Europe and the United States.亚洲是世界上最大的目标市场为奢侈品品牌，占更多的销售比任何其他地区，包括欧洲和美国。 For instance, half of Switzerland’s USD 8 billion annual watch exports go to Asia.举例来说，有一半是瑞士的美元80亿，每年观赏都出口到亚洲。 France’s LVMH, the world’s largest luxury goods company, claims that 40 percent of world sales are generated in Asia while for its rival, Gucci, the figure is 45 percent.法国的路易威登，世界最大的奢侈品公司，声称有40 ％的世界销售额都产生在亚洲，而它的竞争对手， Gucci后，这个数字是45 ％ 。 (7) （ 7 ）

According to one of the world’s leading financial groups, Goldman Sachs, consumption of luxury goods in China, except private jets and luxury yachts, reached USD6 billion in 2004, making up12 percent of the global total consumption on the goods— up from 1 percent just five years previously.之一，据世界领先的金融集团，高盛，消费的奢侈消费品在中国，除私人飞机和豪华游艇，达成usd6亿元，在2004年，使up12 ％的全球总消费对消费品行动从1 ％ ，短短5年以前。 According to their findings China has turned into the third largest consumer of luxury goods in the world.(8) Its share of the luxury market is only superseded by Japan with 41 percent and the US at 17 percent.根据他们的调查结果，中国已经成为世界第三大消费的奢侈商品在世界（ 8 ） ，其所占的奢侈品市场是唯一取代日本有41 ％和美国17 ％ 。 It is expected to grow 20 percent annually until 2008 and then 10 percent annually until 2015, when sales are expected to exceed USD 1.5 bilion.(9)它预计将增长20 ％ ，每年直到2008年，然后在10 ％ ，每年直到2015年，当销售收入预计将超过1.5美元bilion （ 9 ）

Of course, only a tiny fraction of China’s huge population can afford to spend several thousand renminbi on a bag or a pair of shoes.当然，只有一小部分中国的人口众多，有能力花几千人民币对一包或双鞋。 But many experts argue that China can become the world’s largest luxury market with a comparatively low purchasing rate because of its 1.3 billion population.但许多专家认为，中国可以成为世界上最大的豪华汽车市场，以相对较低的购买率，因为它有13亿人口。 While luxury-buying wealth is still spread extremely thin, the number of rich Chinese is rising fast.而奢侈品购买财富还在蔓延极薄，有多少丰富的中文是迅速上升。 In 1999 you needed just USD 6 million to be among Forbes Magazine’s 50 richest people in China, while last year you needed USD 140 million to rank in the richest 100.(10) Accordingly in 2006 it was reported that were around 300,000 US dollar millionaires among China’s more than one billion inhabitants.(11)在1999年，你所需要的只是600万美元，以成为福布斯杂志的50个最富有的人在中国，而去年你所需要的美元， 1.4亿美元排在最富有的100 （ 10 ）据此在2006年据报道，大约30万美国美元百万富翁，其中中国的10多亿人口。 （ 11 ）

Market performance 市场表现
Sales of luxury goods are booming across the world as the strength of the global economy helps to forge a new class of wealthy consumers in Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe.销售高档商品正在迅速增长，世界各地作为实力的全球经济，有助于建立一类新的富裕消费者，在亚洲，中东和东欧。 Whether it is yachts, premium car brands, haute couture fashion, high-priced liquor or designer perfumes and hand-crafted watches, reports from companies making high-end products have been pointing to a robust 2006 for their industry after a solid start to the year.无论是游艇，地价汽车品牌，高级女装时装，高价位的酒或设计师香水和手工制作的手表，报告从公司决策高档次产品已指着一强劲，为2006年该行业经过了坚实开始向一年。

Demand for luxury and fashion products has traditionally been regarded as fickle and highly susceptible to swings in economic sentiment.需求的奢侈品和时装产品向来被视为变幻无常的市场需求和高度易感，以秋千，在经济景气。 However luxury brands have now enjoyed many successive years of growth.不过豪华车品牌已经享有许多连年增长。 According to Bain & Co., worldwide sales of luxury goods are expected to grow at an average of about 6 percent up to the end of the decade, with the  sector growing by as much as 9 percent in Asia.据公司Bain ＆ Co ，全球销售的高档商品，预计增长在平均约六％ ，至2010年底，将与业界增长高达9 ％ ，在亚洲。 (12) According to the Economic Research Institute in China, earnings from stock and property speculation have also contributed to the booming sales of luxury goods.(13) （ 12 ）按照经济研究院，在中国，收入从股票和房地产的投机活动也促进了销售激增的奢侈品。 （ 13 ）

The above-average growth in Asia is attributable in large part to China.上述平均增长率在亚洲是在很大程度上归功于中国。 Goldman Sachs has predicted that China will consume about 29 percent of the world’s total luxury goods in 2015, surpassing Japan as the world’s top luxury brands market.高盛公司预言，中国将消耗约29 ％的世界总的奢侈消费品，到2015年，超过了日本，成为世界顶尖的豪华车品牌市场。 Their studies predict that the demand for luxury goods in China will grow by 25 percent annually between 2006 and 2010, exceeding Japan’s expected 28 percent share at that time.(14) A similar prediction is made by Meril Lynch, which expects that extravagant offshore spending will see Chinese consumers likely to account for almost a quarter of global luxury goods purchases by 2014.(15)他们的研究预言的需求，高档商品在中国将增长25 ％ ，每年都在2006年和2010年，超过了日本预期的28 ％的份额，在这个时候（ 14 ）类似的预测是由meril林奇，其中预计奢侈离岸支出将看到中国消费者可能占到将近四分之一的全球奢侈消费品的购买2014年（ 15 ）

Luxury car brands also predict significant growth in the coming years.豪华车品牌，也预示着显着的增长，在未来数年。 For example, luxury German car group Audi said in May 2006 that sales in China had almost doubled in the space of five months.举例来说，德国的豪华汽车集团奥迪公司称，在2006年5月在中国的销售几乎增加了一倍，在太空生活的5个月。 Mercedes-Benz said sales rose more than 20 percent year on year, while BMW AG began the year by posting the best total quarterly sales in the auto group’s history.(16)梅赛德斯-奔驰公司表示，销售额增长了20 ％以上，今年一年，而宝马汽车公司开始了一年张贴最好的季度共销售汽车集团的历史。 （ 16 ）

Sales of certain luxury goods have been given a further boost by the progressive reduction of tariffs on imported luxury goods since 2005 in accordance with China’s commitments to the World Trade Organization.销售的某些高档商品被赋予了进一步推动通过逐步降低关税，对进口奢侈消费品， 2005年以来，按照中国的承诺，加入世界贸易组织。 For example, the 28 percent to 40 percent tariff that was levied on imported watches until the end of the year 2004 was cut to 12.5 percent and will be further reduced to1 percent by the end of 2006.举例来说， 28 ％至40 ％的关税，这是征收，对进口的手表，直到今年年底， 2004年减少到12.5 ％ ，将进一步减至1189.89 ％ ，为2006年年底。

Counterfeiting 假冒
While the Chinese luxury goods market is growing rapidly, an equally fast-growing segment of local industry has been counterfeiting.而中国奢侈品消费品市场正在迅速扩大，一个同样快速成长的部分地方行业一直在仿冒。 Just as China has become the world’s leading assemble rand exporter of manufactured goods, it is likewise said to be dominating the underground trade in luxury fakes.正如中国已成为世界领先的组装兰德制成品的出口产品，这是同样说是独霸地下贸易奢侈品假货。 The US and EU assert that the majority of fakes seized at their borders are made in China.美国和欧盟断言说，大部份的假货查获在边境地区，是在中国生产的。 Mainland Chinese counterfeit exports to the US accounted for 69 percent of total seizures last year, or about USD 64 million worth, according to US customs.中国大陆假冒产品出口到美国，占69 ％ ，共缉获去年，即约美元6,400万元的价值，据美国海关。 The problem is perhaps most pervasive in China because counterfeit operations are secretive, resilient and geographically dispersed.(17)这个问题也许是最普遍的，在中国，因为假冒行动隐秘，富于弹性和地理上分散的（ 17 ）

While government authorities are concerned that a proportion of profits from counterfeit goods are going to organised crime, companies are busy assessing the extent to which counterfeiting is undermining their brand value.而政府当局关心的一个比例的利润，从假冒商品要有组织犯罪，公司正忙于评估在何种程度上假冒行为是破坏了他们的品牌价值。 Ultimately, despite the opportunities created by emerging markets like China, India and Russia, luxury brands are fighting battles on multiple fronts–and some say luxury brands are fighting to hold on to their identity.最终，尽管创造的机会的新兴市场，如中国，印度和俄罗斯，豪华车品牌是整体作战多方面-有人说奢侈品品牌战，以掌握他们的身份。 For them, the name denotes a guarantee of quality and with counterfeits the guarantee of quality offered by luxury brands is being undermined.对于他们来说，名字是指品质的保证，并与假冒产品质量保证所提供的豪华车品牌被削弱。 Others suggest that the situation is a double-edged sword.也有人认为，这个情况是一把双刃剑。 Some believe that the availability of counterfeits has helped to make the genuine product more sought-after, as well as increasing general awareness of luxury names.(18)有的认为，提供假冒产品，有利于使真正的产品更受欢迎后，以及日益普遍的认识奢侈的名字。 （ 18 ）

Nick Debnam & George Svinos,尼克德布南＆乔治svinos ， KPMG毕马威

This is part I of a KPMG Retail Report.这是第一部分一毕马威零售报告。 Next week we will publish part II下周，我们将公布第二部分

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