Partie I : Marques de luxe et le secteur au détail en Chine

Par Nick Debnam et George Svinos, KPMG

Fles compagnies d'oreign partagent un intérêt croissant en branchant sur le marché de luxe de la Chine. Les statistiques prouvent non seulement que le nombre de personnes riches se développe rapidement en Chine, mais que leur volonté de dépenser sur des articles de grand-billet est également sur l'élévation, conduite par un appétit pour le statut aussi bien que les conforts et les piégeages des produits de luxe.

L'économie de la Chine a accru 10.3 pour cent dans le premier trimestre de 2006 de l'année plus tôt, rattrapant le Royaume-Uni pour devenir économie du monde la quatrième plus grande. Selon une évaluation préliminaire par le bureau national des statistiques en Chine, le PIB de la Chine dans le premier semestre de 2006 était RMB 9.144 trillion, une augmentation d'année-sur-année de 10.9 pour cent. Ventes au détail totales des biens de consommation pour la première moitié de 2006 croissance significative également expérimentée, atteignant RMB 3.644 trillion, une élévation d'année-sur-année de 13.3 pour cent. De façon générale, les ventes au détail de la Chine avaient monté à leur rythme plus rapide pendant que les revenus croissants stimulent la dépense sur des voitures, des meubles et electronics.(4)

Les ventes au détail avaient monté à côté du revenu net. Selon le bureau national des statistiques de la Chine, par habitant le revenu net des ménages urbains s'est élevé à RMB 5.997 de 2005, à une augmentation de 1.6 pour cent au cours de l'année précédente, et à une vraie augmentation de 10.2 pour cent après avoir déduit des facteurs des prix. Par habitant la dépense de consommation s'est élevée à RMB 4.228, à une augmentation d'année-sur-année de 9.4 pour cent, et à une vraie croissance de 8.0 pour cent. Cities are home to some 40 percent of China’s population, and average incomes in urban areas are often more than three times those in the countryside.(5) In June 2006 retail sales of urban consumer goods was RMB 2.462 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 14.0 percent; that of rural areas was RMB 1.183 trillion, increasing12.0 percent.(6)

Demand for luxury brands
Asia is the largest target market for luxury brands, accounting for more sales than any other region, including Europe and the United States. For instance, half of Switzerland’s USD 8 billion annual watch exports go to Asia. France’s LVMH, the world’s largest luxury goods company, claims that 40 percent of world sales are generated in Asia while for its rival, Gucci, the figure is 45 percent. (7)

According to one of the world’s leading financial groups, Goldman Sachs, consumption of luxury goods in China, except private jets and luxury yachts, reached USD6 billion in 2004, making up12 percent of the global total consumption on the goods— up from 1 percent just five years previously. According to their findings China has turned into the third largest consumer of luxury goods in the world.(8) Its share of the luxury market is only superseded by Japan with 41 percent and the U.S. at 17 percent. It is expected to grow 20 percent annually until 2008 and then 10 percent annually until 2015, when sales are expected to exceed USD 1.5 bilion.(9)

Of course, only a tiny fraction of China’s huge population can afford to spend several thousand renminbi on a bag or a pair of shoes. But many experts argue that China can become the world’s largest luxury market with a comparatively low purchasing rate because of its 1.3 billion population. While luxury-buying wealth is still spread extremely thin, the number of rich Chinese is rising fast. In 1999 you needed just USD 6 million to be among Forbes Magazine’s 50 richest people in China, while last year you needed USD 140 million to rank in the richest 100.(10) Accordingly in 2006 it was reported that were around 300,000 U.S. dollar millionaires among China’s more than one billion inhabitants.(11)

Market performance
Sales of luxury goods are booming across the world as the strength of the global economy helps to forge a new class of wealthy consumers in Asia, the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Whether it is yachts, premium car brands, haute couture fashion, high-priced liquor or designer perfumes and hand-crafted watches, reports from companies making high-end products have been pointing to a robust 2006 for their industry after a solid start to the year.

Demand for luxury and fashion products has traditionally been regarded as fickle and highly susceptible to swings in economic sentiment. However luxury brands have now enjoyed many successive years of growth. According to Bain & Co., worldwide sales of luxury goods are expected to grow at an average of about 6 percent up to the end of the decade, with the  sector growing by as much as 9 percent in Asia. (12) According to the Economic Research Institute in China, earnings from stock and property speculation have also contributed to the booming sales of luxury goods.(13)

The above-average growth in Asia is attributable in large part to China. Goldman Sachs has predicted that China will consume about 29 percent of the world’s total luxury goods in 2015, surpassing Japan as the world’s top luxury brands market. Their studies predict that the demand for luxury goods in China will grow by 25 percent annually between 2006 and 2010, exceeding Japan’s expected 28 percent share at that time.(14) A similar prediction is made by Meril Lynch, which expects that extravagant offshore spending will see Chinese consumers likely to account for almost a quarter of global luxury goods purchases by 2014.(15)

Luxury car brands also predict significant growth in the coming years. For example, luxury German car group Audi said in May 2006 that sales in China had almost doubled in the space of five months. Mercedes-Benz said sales rose more than 20 percent year on year, while BMW AG began the year by posting the best total quarterly sales in the auto group’s history.(16)

Sales of certain luxury goods have been given a further boost by the progressive reduction of tariffs on imported luxury goods since 2005 in accordance with China’s commitments to the World Trade Organization. For example, the 28 percent to 40 percent tariff that was levied on imported watches until the end of the year 2004 was cut to 12.5 percent and will be further reduced to1 percent by the end of 2006.

Counterfeiting
While the Chinese luxury goods market is growing rapidly, an equally fast-growing segment of local industry has been counterfeiting. Just as China has become the world’s leading assemble rand exporter of manufactured goods, it is likewise said to be dominating the underground trade in luxury fakes. The U.S. and EU assert that the majority of fakes seized at their borders are made in China. Mainland Chinese counterfeit exports to the U.S. accounted for 69 percent of total seizures last year, or about USD 64 million worth, according to U.S. customs. The problem is perhaps most pervasive in China because counterfeit operations are secretive, resilient and geographically dispersed.(17)

While government authorities are concerned that a proportion of profits from counterfeit goods are going to organised crime, companies are busy assessing the extent to which counterfeiting is undermining their brand value. Ultimately, despite the opportunities created by emerging markets like China, India and Russia, luxury brands are fighting battles on multiple fronts–and some say luxury brands are fighting to hold on to their identity. For them, the name denotes a guarantee of quality and with counterfeits the guarantee of quality offered by luxury brands is being undermined. Others suggest that the situation is a double-edged sword. Some believe that the availability of counterfeits has helped to make the genuine product more sought-after, as well as increasing general awareness of luxury names.(18)

Nick Debnam & George Svinos, KPMG

This is part I of a KPMG Retail Report. Next week we will publish part II

Sources:
4 “What’s in store in the luxury department”, Women’s Wear Daily,13 June 2006
5 “China’s retail sales rise more than expected”, Blomberg, 13 June 2006
6 National Bureau of Statistics of China; w.stats.gov.cn/english/
7 “Growing economy lifts demand for international brands”, China Daily, 4 December 2004
8 “China said to be biggest luxury consumption market by 2015”, Sino Cast China Business Daily News, 12 February 2006
9 “Mainland taste for expensive grows”, South China Morning Post, 20 May 2005
10 “Retailers eye untapped market”, The Australian, 16 April 2005
11 “China’s increasing demand for high-end bling”, The Luxury Institute, 14 June 2006
12 “Conspicuous consumption makes a comeback as luxury goods boom”, China Daily, 10 June 2006
13 “High stakes for high-end gods”, China Daily (North America ned.), 27 January 2005
14 “Luxury brands seeking more chance in China”, Chinaview, 9 November 2004
15 “China luxury goods expected to surge”, Women’s Wear Daily, 4 October 2005
16 “Conspicuous consumption makes a comeback as luxury goods boom”, China Daily, 10 June 2006
17 “Fake luxury goods have sinister tag”, China Daily, 21 May 2005
18 “The complex trade in luxurious fakes”, The Financial Express, 30 April 2006