由安德魯・ Hupert

`將那裡或那裡不會？』 小叢年輕歐洲&亞裔推銷員從他們的雜亂的一團打破并且提出問題對我。 他們嘗試到放鬆的看起來，但他們清楚地有關。 整個銷售部觀看美國和歐洲丟失的動量的經濟并且問自己同一個問題：

有沒有天分彙集從北美洲和歐洲進入中國？ 上海是否將成為新的崗位畢業著陸墊為偶然簡歷建造者和堅硬演奏英語老師？ 或嚴肅，老練的買賣人是否決定這是完善的時候建立他們的中國存在？

它是一個了不起的問題為高級管理人員以小時責任。

假設，美國朝向為一個重大經濟衰退，當中國在8 - 11%範圍時繼續增長。 失業在西方釘，而中國繼續支付越来越高薪水老練的經理。

3种天分

新的分支或辦公室。 如果中國是寂靜的生火在所有圓筒，當美國在路時的邊失去作用，我們也許很好看SMEs (小&中型企業)在中國加速他們的計劃設定商店。 除非事得到顯著更壞，大MNCs大概不會改變他們的初次公開展出計劃。

小時結果: 幾位資深人和專家從Stateside -，但這些人將是大淨雇主。 Admin和重視技術的本機將是第一在他們的祝願名單，迅速跟隨由系主任，銷售管理和最後前線職員。

大概不會有對小時情況的巨大的衝擊。

Top and middle managers looking for jobs. Victims of bankruptcies, lay-offs and downsizing may very well end go on a mysterious Chinese treasure hunt. Distance, language and general weirdness will keep the numbers low at first – and a high crash & burn rate will probably keep a lid on this trend. What about overseas Chinese managers? If John Q Chen gets laid off from Citicorp he may very decide to look up his Mom’s distant relations in China and come home to lao-jia. But for the most part, this demographic has already had a good look at the China option and the overseas Chinese who wanted to roll the dice here have probably already done so.

HR Impact? Those with 7+ years of western experience will probably not drive a noticeable influx into the Chinese job market, but those that do make the trip and survive the first year could have an out-
sized impact on business in the big cities.

Recent grads. Yes. This is the group that is going to start swarming to the Middle Kingdom – and there are signs that is already happening. The tricky bit here is that there are probably not enough English-teaching/acting/modeling/hostessing jobs around to support a large population of relatively unskilled 20-somethings. But China’s relatively low rents & expenses and cultural attractions (pretty mountains, cheap beer, sex) will keep them hanging around – and possible incubating some interesting new business ideas. A few will stay for the long term, but most will drift back home after a year or two.

Impact on HR – Very high if are an English teacher or a Maoming Lu bar girl. Sharp sales managers will keep an eye out for nice kids with lots of potential to do special projects or develop specific markets, but these are the goldfish of the working world- they’ll go belly-up if you look at them funny. The better their skills, the harder it will be to hold on.

So will a downturn in the US have any impact on hiring in China? Well, if you have an international team it gives you extra Bluster & Threat bonus points as you reinforce the myth that you have a stack of Ivy League resumes in your office. But if you think that your middle management gaps can be patched with refugees from the bear market, you may want to reconsider. Unless the US goes into a loooong recession that somehow misses China completely, the probably won’t be a significant influx of new senior managers.

Andrew Hupert, Chinasolved