由安德鲁· Hupert

`将那里或那里不会？’ 小丛年轻欧洲&亚裔推销员从他们的杂乱的一团打破并且提出问题对我。 他们尝试到放松的看起来，但他们清楚地有关。 整个销售部观看美国和欧洲丢失的动量的经济并且问自己同一个问题：

有没有天分汇集从北美洲和欧洲进入中国？ 上海是否将成为新的岗位毕业着陆垫为偶然简历建造者和坚硬演奏英语老师？ 或严肃，老练的买卖人是否决定这是完善的时候建立他们的中国存在？

它是一个了不起的问题为高级管理人员以小时责任。

假设，美国朝向为一个重大经济衰退，当中国在8 - 11%范围时继续增长。 失业在西方钉，而中国继续支付越来越高薪水老练的经理。

3天分

新的分支或办公室。 如果中国是寂静的生火在所有圆筒，当美国在路时的边失去作用，我们也许很好看SMEs (小&中型企业)在中国加速他们的计划设定商店。 除非事得到显着更坏，大MNCs大概不会改变他们的初次公开展出计划。

小时结果: 几位资深人和专家从Stateside -，但这些人将是大净雇主。 Admin和重视技术的本机将是第一在他们的祝愿名单，迅速跟随由系主任，销售管理和最后前线职员。

Probably will not have huge impact on the HR situation.

Top and middle managers looking for jobs. Victims of bankruptcies, lay-offs and downsizing may very well end go on a mysterious Chinese treasure hunt. Distance, language and general weirdness will keep the numbers low at first – and a high crash & burn rate will probably keep a lid on this trend. What about overseas Chinese managers? If John Q Chen gets laid off from Citicorp he may very decide to look up his Mom’s distant relations in China and come home to lao-jia. But for the most part, this demographic has already had a good look at the China option and the overseas Chinese who wanted to roll the dice here have probably already done so.

HR Impact? Those with 7+ years of western experience will probably not drive a noticeable influx into the Chinese job market, but those that do make the trip and survive the first year could have an out-
sized impact on business in the big cities.

Recent grads. Yes. This is the group that is going to start swarming to the Middle Kingdom – and there are signs that is already happening. The tricky bit here is that there are probably not enough English-teaching/acting/modeling/hostessing jobs around to support a large population of relatively unskilled 20-somethings. But China’s relatively low rents & expenses and cultural attractions (pretty mountains, cheap beer, sex) will keep them hanging around – and possible incubating some interesting new business ideas. A few will stay for the long term, but most will drift back home after a year or two.

Impact on HR – Very high if are an English teacher or a Maoming Lu bar girl. Sharp sales managers will keep an eye out for nice kids with lots of potential to do special projects or develop specific markets, but these are the goldfish of the working world- they’ll go belly-up if you look at them funny. The better their skills, the harder it will be to hold on.

So will a downturn in the US have any impact on hiring in China? Well, if you have an international team it gives you extra Bluster & Threat bonus points as you reinforce the myth that you have a stack of Ivy League resumes in your office. But if you think that your middle management gaps can be patched with refugees from the bear market, you may want to reconsider. Unless the US goes into a loooong recession that somehow misses China completely, the probably won’t be a significant influx of new senior managers.

Andrew Hupert, Chinasolved