Por Andrew Hupert

O `lá ou não estará lá?' O clump pequeno de salesmen europeus & Asian novos quebra de seu huddle e põe-me a pergunta. Tentam ao olhar relaxado, mas são concernidos claramente. O departamento inteiro das vendas tem prestado atenção às economias do momentum perdedor dos E.U. e da Europa e tem-se feito a mesma pergunta:

Haverá um influx do talent da America do Norte e da Europa em China? Shanghai transformar-se-á a aterragem-almofada nova do borne-grad para construtores ocasionais e duro-jogar do resumo professores ingleses? Ou os negócio-povos sérios, experientes decidir-se-ão que este é o momento perfeito de estabelecer sua China-presença?

É uma pergunta grande para gerentes sênior com responsabilidade da hora.

Vamos supor que os E.U. estão dirigindo para um slowdown econômico significativo quando China continuar a crescer na escala de 8 - de 11%. Desemprego nos pontos ocidentais, quando China continuar a pagar uns salários mais elevados e mais elevados por gerentes experientes.

3 tipos do Talent

Filiais ou escritórios novos. Se China for acendimento imóvel em todos os cilindros quando os E.U. estiverem parados no lado da estrada, nós podemos muito jorrar vemos que os SMEs (empresas pequenas & de tamanho médio) aceleram suas plantas para ajustar acima a loja em China. MNCs grande provavelmente não mudará o seu rola-para fora plantas a menos que as coisas começarem significativamente mais más.

Upshot da hora: Alguns povos e specialists sênior de Stateside - mas estes povos serão hirers líquidos GRANDES. O Admin e os locals técnico-ocupados serão primeiro em sua desej-lista, seguida rapidamente pelas cabeças de departamento, em gerência de vendas e finalmente na equipe de funcionários front-line.

Probably will not have huge impact on the HR situation.

Top and middle managers looking for jobs. Victims of bankruptcies, lay-offs and downsizing may very well end go on a mysterious Chinese treasure hunt. Distance, language and general weirdness will keep the numbers low at first – and a high crash & burn rate will probably keep a lid on this trend. What about overseas Chinese managers? If John Q Chen gets laid off from Citicorp he may very decide to look up his Mom’s distant relations in China and come home to lao-jia. But for the most part, this demographic has already had a good look at the China option and the overseas Chinese who wanted to roll the dice here have probably already done so.

HR Impact? Those with 7+ years of western experience will probably not drive a noticeable influx into the Chinese job market, but those that do make the trip and survive the first year could have an out-
sized impact on business in the big cities.

Recent grads. Yes. This is the group that is going to start swarming to the Middle Kingdom – and there are signs that is already happening. The tricky bit here is that there are probably not enough English-teaching/acting/modeling/hostessing jobs around to support a large population of relatively unskilled 20-somethings. But China’s relatively low rents & expenses and cultural attractions (pretty mountains, cheap beer, sex) will keep them hanging around – and possible incubating some interesting new business ideas. A few will stay for the long term, but most will drift back home after a year or two.

Impact on HR – Very high if are an English teacher or a Maoming Lu bar girl. Sharp sales managers will keep an eye out for nice kids with lots of potential to do special projects or develop specific markets, but these are the goldfish of the working world- they’ll go belly-up if you look at them funny. The better their skills, the harder it will be to hold on.

So will a downturn in the US have any impact on hiring in China? Well, if you have an international team it gives you extra Bluster & Threat bonus points as you reinforce the myth that you have a stack of Ivy League resumes in your office. But if you think that your middle management gaps can be patched with refugees from the bear market, you may want to reconsider. Unless the US goes into a loooong recession that somehow misses China completely, the probably won’t be a significant influx of new senior managers.

Andrew Hupert, Chinasolved