Par Andrew Hupert

Le `là ou ne sera pas là ?' Le petit bloc de jeunes vendeurs européens et asiatiques se casse de leur groupe et pose la question à moi. Ils essayent au sembler détendu, mais clairement ils sont concernés. Le département entier de ventes avait observé les économies de l'élan perdant des USA et de l'Europe et s'était posé la même question :

Il y aura-t-il un afflux de talent d'Amérique du Nord et l'Europe en la Chine ? Changhaï deviendra-t-il la nouvelle atterrissage-garniture de poteau-diplômé pour les constructeurs occasionnels et le dur-jeu de résumé des professeurs anglais ? Ou les affaire-personnes sérieuses et expérimentées décideront-elles que c'est l'heure parfaite d'établir leur Chine-présence ?

C'est une grande question pour les cadres supérieurs avec la responsabilité d'heure.

Supposons que les USA se dirigent pour un ralentissement économique significatif tandis que la Chine continue à se développer dans la gamme de 8 - de 11%. Le chômage dans les transitoires occidentales, alors que la Chine continue à payer des salaires plus élevés et plus élevés les directeurs expérimentés.

3 genres de talent

Nouveaux branches ou bureaux. Si la Chine est mise à feu immobile sur tous les cylindres tandis que les USA sont calés du côté de la route, nous pouvons très bien voir que les PME (petites et moyennes entreprises) accélèrent leurs plans pour établir le magasin en Chine. Grand MNCs ne changera pas probablement le leur roulent-dehors des plans à moins que les choses deviennent sensiblement plus mauvaises.

Résultat d'heure: Quelques personnes et spécialistes aînés de Stateside - mais ces personnes seront de GRANDES locataires nettes. Admin and technical-minded locals will be first on their wish-list, followed quickly by department heads, sales management and finally the front-line staff.

Probably will not have huge impact on the HR situation.

Top and middle managers looking for jobs. Victims of bankruptcies, lay-offs and downsizing may very well end go on a mysterious Chinese treasure hunt. Distance, language and general weirdness will keep the numbers low at first – and a high crash & burn rate will probably keep a lid on this trend. What about overseas Chinese managers? If John Q Chen gets laid off from Citicorp he may very decide to look up his Mom’s distant relations in China and come home to lao-jia. But for the most part, this demographic has already had a good look at the China option and the overseas Chinese who wanted to roll the dice here have probably already done so.

HR Impact? Those with 7+ years of western experience will probably not drive a noticeable influx into the Chinese job market, but those that do make the trip and survive the first year could have an out-
sized impact on business in the big cities.

Recent grads. Yes. This is the group that is going to start swarming to the Middle Kingdom – and there are signs that is already happening. The tricky bit here is that there are probably not enough English-teaching/acting/modeling/hostessing jobs around to support a large population of relatively unskilled 20-somethings. But China’s relatively low rents & expenses and cultural attractions (pretty mountains, cheap beer, sex) will keep them hanging around – and possible incubating some interesting new business ideas. A few will stay for the long term, but most will drift back home after a year or two.

Impact on HR – Very high if are an English teacher or a Maoming Lu bar girl. Sharp sales managers will keep an eye out for nice kids with lots of potential to do special projects or develop specific markets, but these are the goldfish of the working world- they’ll go belly-up if you look at them funny. The better their skills, the harder it will be to hold on.

So will a downturn in the US have any impact on hiring in China? Well, if you have an international team it gives you extra Bluster & Threat bonus points as you reinforce the myth that you have a stack of Ivy League resumes in your office. But if you think that your middle management gaps can be patched with refugees from the bear market, you may want to reconsider. Unless the US goes into a loooong recession that somehow misses China completely, the probably won’t be a significant influx of new senior managers.

Andrew Hupert, Chinasolved