By Andrew Hupert

‘Will there or won’t there be?’ The small clump of young European & Asian salesmen breaks from their huddle and puts the question to me. They try to look relaxed, but clearly they’re concerned. The entire sales department has been watching the economies of the US and Europe losing momentum and asking themselves the same question:

Will there be an influx of talent from the North America and Europe into China? Will Shanghai become the new post-grad landing-pad for casual resume builders and hard-playing English teachers? Or will serious, experienced business-people decide that this is the perfect time to establish their China-presence?

It’s a great question for senior managers with HR responsibility.

Let’s assume that the US is heading for a significant economic slowdown while China continues to grow in the 8 – 11% range. Unemployment in the West spikes, while China continues to pay higher and higher wages for experienced managers.

3 Kinds of Talent

New branches or offices. If China is still firing on all cylinders while the US is stalled on the side of the road, we may very well see SMEs (small & medium sized enterprises) accelerate their plans to set up shop in China. Large MNCs probably won’t change their roll-out plans unless things get significantly worse.

HR upshot: A few senior people and specialists from Stateside – but these people will be BIG net hirers. Admin and technical-minded locals will be first on their wish-list, followed quickly by department heads, sales management and finally the front-line staff.

Probably will not have huge impact on the HR situation.

Top and middle managers looking for jobs. Victims of bankruptcies, lay-offs and downsizing may very well end go on a mysterious Chinese treasure hunt. Distance, language and general weirdness will keep the numbers low at first – and a high crash & burn rate will probably keep a lid on this trend. What about overseas Chinese managers? If John Q Chen gets laid off from Citicorp he may very decide to look up his Mom’s distant relations in China and come home to lao-jia. But for the most part, this demographic has already had a good look at the China option and the overseas Chinese who wanted to roll the dice here have probably already done so.

HR Impact? Those with 7+ years of western experience will probably not drive a noticeable influx into the Chinese job market, but those that do make the trip and survive the first year could have an out-
sized impact on business in the big cities.

Recent grads. Yes. This is the group that is going to start swarming to the Middle Kingdom – and there are signs that is already happening. The tricky bit here is that there are probably not enough English-teaching/acting/modeling/hostessing jobs around to support a large population of relatively unskilled 20-somethings. But China’s relatively low rents & expenses and cultural attractions (pretty mountains, cheap beer, sex) will keep them hanging around – and possible incubating some interesting new business ideas. A few will stay for the long term, but most will drift back home after a year or two.

Impact on HR – Very high if are an English teacher or a Maoming Lu bar girl. Sharp sales managers will keep an eye out for nice kids with lots of potential to do special projects or develop specific markets, but these are the goldfish of the working world- they’ll go belly-up if you look at them funny. The better their skills, the harder it will be to hold on.

So will a downturn in the US have any impact on hiring in China? Well, if you have an international team it gives you extra Bluster & Threat bonus points as you reinforce the myth that you have a stack of Ivy League resumes in your office. But if you think that your middle management gaps can be patched with refugees from the bear market, you may want to reconsider. Unless the US goes into a loooong recession that somehow misses China completely, the probably won’t be a significant influx of new senior managers.

Andrew Hupert, Chinasolved