由馬歇爾・ Taplits

中國設法阻止增長的貿易順差，處理國內通貨膨脹，從海岸地區移動發展向內地和減少它的對重汙染產業的依賴性。

由於這些宗旨，製造在中國變得昂貴，當中國在暗藏的(和不那麼有時掩藏)費用增加入源頭等式。 

這2008年您能盼望費用繼續起來的名列前茅4個原因：

1. 減少的VAT退款

當中國製造者國內購買物品用於製造業時，他們支付VAT (增值稅)。 為人在不熟悉期限VAT的美國或人，它根本上是銷售稅。 歷史上，如果最後的工業製造品是為出口，中國政府考慮到慷慨的VAT退款。 然而，自2007年7月1日，中國改變了它的退款慣例。 許多產品有他們的VAT退還完全地消滅，并且減少了許多其他。 從中國工廠典型地考慮這些VAT折扣，當計算利潤率，減少時或排除他們是可能的… 培養價格(或猛烈地抽縮利潤率)。

有優秀套確切地詳述產品有VAT變動以及那些一共是免稅的mfg.com創造的PDF文件。 他們所有被翻譯了成英語。  因為這些是PDF文件，他們也許根據您的互聯網連接慢慢地裝載。 

這裡請找出他們：

• 受影響的產品概要,
• 產品以被降下的折扣
• 產品以被取消的折扣
• 是免稅的產品

2. RMB Currency Appreciation vs USD

Until mid-2005, China maintained a peg on the RMB to the USD at 8.27. This provided an element of stability and took the currency risk out of the sourcing equation. However, over the past year and a half, China has begun appreciating the RMB against the dollar. As of this blog article, the current conversion is 7.26. Furthermore, many experts are estimating the rate to dip well into the 6’s over the next year. 

Here is a chart from Yahoo Finance showing the USD vs. RMB trend:

 
While nobody knows for sure what the ‘final’ trading range will be, there are a few interesting commentaries out there.  This article from Bloomberg quotes Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. and a former partner of George Soros, saying the RMB may quadruple in the next decade.

“The currency has advanced 10.5 percent since the government scrapped a peg to the dollar in July 2005, gains that U.S. officials say are insufficient to reduce a trade surplus that swelled to $23.9 billion in September. Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. and a former partner of George Soros, said yesterday the yuan may quadruple in the next decade.

The yuan is “the best currency to buy right now,” Rogers told investors in Amsterdam, adding that he is shifting all his assets out of the dollar and into yuan. China is “going to be the most important country in the 21st century.”

The currency climbed 0.16 percent to 7.4926 per dollar as of the 5:30 p.m. close in Shanghai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Non-deliverable forward contracts show traders are betting the yuan will reach 7.0070 in 12 months, a gain of 6.9 percent from the spot rate, and 6.95 by the end of 2008.”

On a side note, if you’re importing to Europe, the Euro has actually been appreciating against the RMB, so for now you guys are ok! Check out a recent Yahoo Finance chart showing the Euro vs RMB trend.
 

3. Increased Costs Associated with Importing Raw Materials

China said on July 23rd, 2007 that it would begin requiring that exporters put down a deposit for half the amount they spend importing 1,853 raw materials. A quote from this People’s Daily article summarizes the policy.

“Enterprises which are engaged in the production of these products are required to have guarantee deposits in the Bank of China, the designated bank of China Customs, for a contracted period of time, according to the statement jointly released by the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) and China Customs.

If these enterprises fail to sell their products within the time scale dictated by the contracts, the customs will ask the bank to keep their deposits and interest for taxation.

“We are striving to improve the development of China’s processing trade in a bid to promote trade balance and reduce trade surplus,” said Wei Jianguo, vice minister of commerce.”

These new regulations will require a larger cash outlay for large contracts by Chinese factories. Therefore, it’s more likely that they will need to borrow money to meet this requirement. Borrowing money costs money and that cost is likely to be passed along. 

4. Labor Costs Continue to Rise

Labor, once assumed to be endless in China, has been ‘drying up’ for a number of years now. China’s factories depend on a constant supply of new migrant laborers coming from the countryside. Typically every Chinese New Year, as many people return to their home town as can afford to do so. And each year, some old and many new laborers come to the cities in search of work after the holidays. 

However, as villages have become more prosperous, with more family members making and sending money back home, this endless supply of new labor, has began to shrink. Because of this and other factors, labor costs continue to rise. China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that in the first half of 2007 wages were up 18.5% compared to the year earlier period alone!

In addition, China as of January 1, 2008 enacted new labor laws that allow for much more worker protection, but of course at a cost. Global Labor Strategies has an article with many links to other blogs and newspaper articles discussing the reaction worldwide to the new law.

SourceJuice is here to provide you with on the ground information from China, relevant to your sourcing and product development needs. Please visit our website and join our RSS feed or mailing list to keep updated with the latest trends in sourcing.