By Marshall Taplits马歇尔taplits

China has been trying to stem an ever growing trade surplus, manage domestic inflation, move development from the coastal areas to the inland areas and decrease its dependence on heavily polluting industries. 中国一直在试图遏制日益增加的贸易盈余的情况下，管理国内的通货膨胀，此举的发展，从沿海地区向内陆地区，并减少它依赖于重污染行业。

Because of these objectives, manufacturing in China is becoming more expensive as China adds in hidden (and sometimes not so hidden) costs into the sourcing equation.由于这些目标，制造业在中国是越来越昂贵，因为中国加入啾（有时不那么隐性）成本纳入采购方程。

Here are the top 4 reasons you can expect costs to continue to rise in 2008:这里是前四位的原因，你可以预期成本继续上升，在2008年：

1. 1 。 Reduced VAT Refund 降低增值税退税

When Chinese manufacturers purchase goods domestically for use in manufacturing, they pay a VAT (value added tax). For people in the United States or others who are not familiar with the term VAT, it’s essentially a sales tax. Historically, the Chinese government allowed for generous VAT refunds if the final manufactured product is for export. However, as of July 1, 2007, China has changed its refund formula. Many products have had their VAT refunds completely eliminated and many others have been reduced. Since Chinese factories typically take these VAT rebates into account when calculating profit margins, the reduction or elimination of them is likely to… raise prices (or drastically shrink profit margins).当中国制造商购买商品在国内使用，在制造业，他们所支付的增值税（增值税） ，而人在美国或其他人不熟悉任期增值税，它本质上是一个销售税从历史上看，中国政府允许这样大方的增值税退款如果最终制造的产品是供出口。然而，截至2007年7月1日，中国已改变退票公式，许多产品有其增值税退款完全消除和其他许多已显着降低，因为中国工厂通常这些增值税退税到时，计算的利润率，减少或消除他们可能…提高价格（或大幅萎缩，利润率） 。

There is an excellent set of PDF files created by mfg.com which detail exactly the products that have had VAT changes as well as those that are duty free altogether.有一个很好的一套PDF档案创造mfg.com详细说明确切的产品，有增值税的变化，以及那些有责任将完全免费。 They have all been translated into English.  Since these are PDF files, they may load slowly depending on your internet connection.他们都被翻译成英语，因为这些都是PDF档案，他们可以负荷慢慢取决于您的互联网连接。

Please find them here: 请找到他们的位置：

• Overview of Affected Products概述了受影响的产品 , ，
• Products with LOWERED Rebates产品与降低退税
• Products with CANCELLED Rebates产品取消退税
• Products that are DUTY FREE产品免税

2. 2 。 RMB Currency Appreciation vs USD 人民币升值与美元

Until mid-2005, China maintained a peg on the RMB to the USD at 8.27.直到2005年年中，中国保持了PEG对人民币向美元在8.27 。 This provided an element of stability and took the currency risk out of the sourcing equation.这提供了一个稳定的因素并采取了货币风险排除在采购方程。 However, over the past year and a half, China has begun appreciating the RMB against the dollar.然而，在过去一年半来，中国已开始升值，人民币对美元的汇率。 As of this blog article, the current conversion is 7.26. Furthermore, many experts are estimating the rate to dip well into the 6’s over the next year.作为本博客文章，目前的转化率是7.26 ，此外，许多专家估计，利率下跌到600的超过明年。

Here is a chart from Yahoo Finance showing the USD vs. RMB trend:这里有一个图表，从雅虎金融，显示美元对人民币的趋势：

While nobody knows for sure what the ‘final’ trading range will be, there are a few interesting commentaries out there.  This虽然没有人确切地知道什么'最后'交易区间将，有几个有趣的评论文章指出，有这 article from Bloomberg文章从彭博 quotes Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. and a former partner of George Soros, saying the RMB may quadruple in the next decade.行情吉姆罗杰斯董事长beeland利益和公司的前任合伙人索罗斯说，人民币可能翻两番，在未来的十年。

“The currency has advanced 10.5 percent since the government scrapped a peg to the dollar in July 2005, gains that US officials say are insufficient to reduce a trade surplus that swelled to $23.9 billion in September. "货币拥有先进的10.5 ％ ，政府既然删除了一项钉住美元的汇率政策，在2005年7月，取得美国官员说，是不够的，以减少贸易盈余猛增至23900000000美元九月。 Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. and a former partner of George Soros, said yesterday the yuan may quadruple in the next decade.吉姆罗杰斯董事长beeland利益和公司的前任合伙人乔治索罗斯昨天表示，人民币可能翻两番，在未来的十年。

The yuan is “the best currency to buy right now,” Rogers told investors in Amsterdam, adding that he is shifting all his assets out of the dollar and into yuan.人民币汇率是"最好的货币，现在买进"罗杰斯告诉投资者，在阿姆斯特丹，并补充说，他是把他的所有资产调离美元，并成人民币。 China is “going to be the most important country in the 21st century.”中国是"走出去是最重要的国家，在二十一世纪" 。

The currency climbed 0.16 percent to 7.4926 per dollar as of the 5:30 pm close in Shanghai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.货币上涨0.16 ％ ，至7.4926兑1美元，作为该下午5:30结束，在上海，据彭博信息的数据。 Non-deliverable forward contracts show traders are betting the yuan will reach 7.0070 in 12 months, a gain of 6.9 percent from the spot rate, and 6.95 by the end of 2008.”不交收远期合约显示交易商押注人民币将达到7.0070 ，在12个月内，涨幅6.9 ％ ，由即期汇率，以及6.95到去年底， 2008年" 。

On a side note, if you’re importing to Europe, the Euro has actually been appreciating against the RMB, so for now you guys are ok!一个方注意，如果您输入到欧洲，欧元实际上已升值，对人民币，所以你们这些家伙现在好！ Check out a recent Yahoo Finance chart showing the Euro vs RMB trend.签出最近雅虎财务图表，显示欧元对人民币的趋势。

3. 3 。 Increased Costs Associated with Importing Raw Materials 增加的成本与进口原料

China said on July 23rd, 2007 that it would begin requiring that exporters put down a deposit for half the amount they spend importing 1,853 raw materials. A quote from this中国已经表示，对2007年7月23日表示，它将开始要求出口商放下了订金数额的一半，他们花费1853年进口原材料。竞标从这个 People’s Daily article人民群众的日常生活文章 summarizes the policy.总结政策。

“Enterprises which are engaged in the production of these products are required to have guarantee deposits in the Bank of China, the designated bank of China Customs, for a contracted period of time, according to the statement jointly released by the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) and China Customs. "企业是从事生产，这些产品都要求有保证存款在中国银行，指定银行，中国海关，为承包一段时间后，根据需要向美国提供联合发布的商业部（国家建设部）和中国海关。

If these enterprises fail to sell their products within the time scale dictated by the contracts, the customs will ask the bank to keep their deposits and interest for taxation.如果这些企业不出售自己的产品在时间尺度取决于合同的规定，海关将要求银行保持自己的存款和利息，税项。

“We are striving to improve the development of China’s processing trade in a bid to promote trade balance and reduce trade surplus,” said Wei Jianguo, vice minister of commerce.” "我们正在努力改善的发展，中国的加工贸易中，为了促进贸易平衡，减少贸易盈余的情况下，说： "魏建国副部长，商业" 。

These new regulations will require a larger cash outlay for large contracts by Chinese factories. Therefore, it’s more likely that they will need to borrow money to meet this requirement.这些新规定将需要一个更大的现金支出为大型合同，由中国的工厂，因此，它更可能认为他们将需要借钱，以满足这方面的需求。 Borrowing money costs money and that cost is likely to be passed along.借钱花钱的，并且费用很可能会转嫁沿。

4. 4 。 Labor Costs Continue to Rise 劳动力成本继续上升;

Labor, once assumed to be endless in China, has been ‘drying up’ for a number of years now.劳动，一旦被假定为无穷的，在中国，一直'断流'工作数年。 China’s factories depend on a constant supply of new migrant laborers coming from the countryside. Typically every Chinese New Year, as many people return to their home town as can afford to do so. And each year, some old and many new laborers come to the cities in search of work after the holidays.中国的工厂，靠的是不断供应新的民工来自农村，典型的例子是每一个中国人新的一年里，由于很多人回到自己的家乡，因为能够这样做，而且每年都有一些老了许多新的劳动力来到城市寻找工作的假期之后。

However, as villages have become more prosperous, with more family members making and sending money back home, this endless supply of new labor, has began to shrink. Because of this and other factors, labor costs continue to rise.不过，由于乡村变得更繁荣，更与家庭成员的决策和寄钱回家，这源源不绝的新的劳动，已开始萎缩，因为这个问题和其他因素，劳动力成本不断上升。 China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that in the first half of 2007 wages were up 18.5% compared to the year earlier period alone!中国国家统计局的统计报告说，在2007年上半年的工资增长了18.5 ％ ，相比去年同期，仅！

In addition, China as of January 1, 2008 enacted new labor laws that allow for much more worker protection, but of course at a cost.此外，中国，截至2008年1月1日颁布了新的劳动法规，让更多的工人的保护，但当然有代价的。 Global Labor Strategies has an article with many links to other blogs and newspaper articles discussing the reaction worldwide to the new law.全球劳动力战略一篇文章，有许多链接到其他博客和报刊文章讨论反应世界范围内，以新的法律。

SourceJuice sourcejuice is here to provide you with on the ground information from China, relevant to your sourcing and product development needs. Please visit our website and join our RSS feed or mailing list to keep updated with the latest trends in sourcing.在这里向您提供在地面上的资料，来自中国，有关你的采购和产品开发的需要，请访问我们的网站，并加入我们的RSS饲料或邮寄名单，以不断更新的最新趋势，在货源。