Dal Marshall Taplits

La Cina sta provando a staccare un'eccedenza dal gambo commerciale sempre crescente, a controllare l'inflazione domestica, a spostare lo sviluppo dalle zone costiere verso le zone interne ed a fare diminuire la relativa dipendenza dalle industrie pesante di inquinamento.

A causa di questi obiettivi, produrre in Cina sta diventando più costosa mentre la Cina aggiunge (ed a volte non così nascosto) nei costi nascosti nell'equazione di sourcing. 

Qui sono i 4 motivi che principali potete invitare i costi a continuare per aumentare in 2008:

1. Rimborso ridotto di IVA

Quando i fornitori cinesi comprano sul piano nazionale le merci per uso nel manufacturing, pagano un'IVA (tassa sul valore aggiunto). Per la gente negli Stati Uniti o altri che non sono al corrente del termine IVA, è essenzialmente un'imposta delle entrate. Storicamente, il governo cinese ha tenuto conto i rimborsi generosi di IVA se il prodotto manufactured finale è per l'esportazione. Tuttavia, al 1° luglio 2007, la Cina ha cambiato la relativa formula di rimborso. Molti prodotti hanno avuti loro IVA rimborsa completamente eliminato e molti altri sono stati ridotti. Dalle fabbriche cinesi prenda tipicamente questi abbuoni di IVA in considerazione quando calcolano i margini di guadagno, la riduzione o l'eliminazione di loro è probabile… prezzi di aumento (o drasticamente margini di guadagno dello shrink).

Ci è un insieme eccellente delle lime del pdf generate da mfg.com che dettagliano esattamente i prodotti che hanno avuti cambiamenti di IVA come pure quelle che sono esenti da dazio complessivamente. Tutti sono stati tradotti in inglese.  Poiché queste sono lime del pdf, possono caricare lentamente secondo il vostro collegamento del Internet. 

Trovili prego qui:

• Descrizione dei prodotti Affected,
• Prodotti con gli abbuoni ABBASSATI
• Prodotti con gli abbuoni ANNULLATI
• Prodotti che sono ESENTI DA DAZIO

2. RMB Currency Appreciation vs USD

Until mid-2005, China maintained a peg on the RMB to the USD at 8.27. This provided an element of stability and took the currency risk out of the sourcing equation. However, over the past year and a half, China has begun appreciating the RMB against the dollar. As of this blog article, the current conversion is 7.26. Furthermore, many experts are estimating the rate to dip well into the 6’s over the next year. 

Here is a chart from Yahoo Finance showing the USD vs. RMB trend:

 
While nobody knows for sure what the ‘final’ trading range will be, there are a few interesting commentaries out there.  This article from Bloomberg quotes Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. and a former partner of George Soros, saying the RMB may quadruple in the next decade.

“The currency has advanced 10.5 percent since the government scrapped a peg to the dollar in July 2005, gains that U.S. officials say are insufficient to reduce a trade surplus that swelled to $23.9 billion in September. Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc. and a former partner of George Soros, said yesterday the yuan may quadruple in the next decade.

The yuan is “the best currency to buy right now,” Rogers told investors in Amsterdam, adding that he is shifting all his assets out of the dollar and into yuan. China is “going to be the most important country in the 21st century.”

The currency climbed 0.16 percent to 7.4926 per dollar as of the 5:30 p.m. close in Shanghai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Non-deliverable forward contracts show traders are betting the yuan will reach 7.0070 in 12 months, a gain of 6.9 percent from the spot rate, and 6.95 by the end of 2008.”

On a side note, if you’re importing to Europe, the Euro has actually been appreciating against the RMB, so for now you guys are ok! Check out a recent Yahoo Finance chart showing the Euro vs RMB trend.
 

3. Increased Costs Associated with Importing Raw Materials

China said on July 23rd, 2007 that it would begin requiring that exporters put down a deposit for half the amount they spend importing 1,853 raw materials. A quote from this People’s Daily article summarizes the policy.

“Enterprises which are engaged in the production of these products are required to have guarantee deposits in the Bank of China, the designated bank of China Customs, for a contracted period of time, according to the statement jointly released by the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) and China Customs.

If these enterprises fail to sell their products within the time scale dictated by the contracts, the customs will ask the bank to keep their deposits and interest for taxation.

“We are striving to improve the development of China’s processing trade in a bid to promote trade balance and reduce trade surplus,” said Wei Jianguo, vice minister of commerce.”

These new regulations will require a larger cash outlay for large contracts by Chinese factories. Therefore, it’s more likely that they will need to borrow money to meet this requirement. Borrowing money costs money and that cost is likely to be passed along. 

4. Labor Costs Continue to Rise

Labor, once assumed to be endless in China, has been ‘drying up’ for a number of years now. China’s factories depend on a constant supply of new migrant laborers coming from the countryside. Typically every Chinese New Year, as many people return to their home town as can afford to do so. And each year, some old and many new laborers come to the cities in search of work after the holidays. 

However, as villages have become more prosperous, with more family members making and sending money back home, this endless supply of new labor, has began to shrink. Because of this and other factors, labor costs continue to rise. China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that in the first half of 2007 wages were up 18.5% compared to the year earlier period alone!

In addition, China as of January 1, 2008 enacted new labor laws that allow for much more worker protection, but of course at a cost. Global Labor Strategies has an article with many links to other blogs and newspaper articles discussing the reaction worldwide to the new law.

SourceJuice is here to provide you with on the ground information from China, relevant to your sourcing and product development needs. Please visit our website and join our RSS feed or mailing list to keep updated with the latest trends in sourcing.